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Probability Analysis of CFTs cards

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Yomna's Avatar Yomna
Level 57 : Grandmaster Pony
189
Hey, in case you missed it, Planet Minecraft has released, for April 1st, CFTs or Creative Fun-gible Tokens (These are kind of NFTs without being real NFTs and all for free)
Since then, I decided to take a closer look at the rarity of CFTs and the associated drop rates.


Each card has two pieces of information about its rarity (in fact, one is deduced from the other)
  • The type of rarity.
    In order: COMMON, UNCOMMON, RARE, EPIC, LEGENDARY and MYTHIC

  • The value of rarity.
    A number between 0 and 75 (maximum can change)
    This number is probably represented by the heart or emerald or diamond (on the right).
    Using: a heart has a value of 1, an emerald of 5 and a diamond of 10.

This means that even if both cards are EPIC rarity, if their rarity value is different then one is rarer than the other.


Based on 188,706 released CFTs cards, I was able to deduce and make this table detailing the value ranges of each type of rarity as well as their percentage of looting (approximate values calculated by the number of cards of the rarity multiplied by 100 and divided by the total number of cards).

Rarity  Min valueMax value  Drop percentage
COMMON0557.44%
UNCOMMON61133.21%
RARE12176.98%
EPIC18231.85%
LEGENDARY24290.38%
MYTHIC30
75 (currently)
0.12%


We can notice that the values seem to be separated by gaps of 5 values, that's what I used to deduce some of them, except for the mythical cards which can reach a maximum rarity of 75.
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Updated probability and rarity #3 : by Yomna 04/12/2024 7:36:43 pmApr 12th

From 31427 to 188706 cards
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2
04/24/2023 8:54 pm
Level 43 : Master Lemon
CrownDeluxe
CrownDeluxe's Avatar
Good to know
1
04/20/2023 3:00 pmhistory
Level 39 : Artisan Network
FE98
FE98's Avatar
Thank You For Telling Us
(Do You Want To I Draw You If You Want Just PM Me)
(But Not Now Because I Have Vote Here)
1
04/04/2023 1:24 pmhistory
Level 41 : Master Nerd
Kefaku
Kefaku's Avatar
updated percentages based on 8147 cards currently released:

Rarity
Drop Percentage
COMMON
66.28%
UNCOMMON
26.80%
RARE
5.04%
EPIC
1.25%
LEGENDARY
0.45%
MYTHIC
0.17%

NOTE: These values are still not extremely accurate, as it is difficult to determine actual odds with the very small number of Legendary/Mythic cards currently being released.

Also, as additional information about trades, they expire after 14 days and have (as far as I know) 5 differend states:

State
Description
ACCEPTEDtrade has been accepted; cards have been exchanged
CANCELEDyou canceled an offer you made
COUNTEREDone participant responded with a different offer
DECLINEDother person declined your offer
INVALIDATEDa card, which was part of the offer, has changed ownership (because of another trade)
PENDING
waiting for reaction from the other person
2
04/04/2023 1:54 pm
Level 57 : Grandmaster Pony
Yomna
Yomna's Avatar
Thx!

For the exchange, it will go more in a general guide
I will probably make one ^^
1
04/04/2023 1:57 pm
Level 41 : Master Nerd
Kefaku
Kefaku's Avatar
Cool, could you please share the link here, if you make a general guide?

In addition to that, I'm currently trying to find out how / at what rate PMT is earned. If I find something out, I'll let you know.
2
04/04/2023 2:12 pm
Level 57 : Grandmaster Pony
Yomna
Yomna's Avatar
Of course ^^

And yeah it would be cool !

But don't forget that admins will probably expose some more details about the CFTs later on
3
04/03/2023 1:35 am
Level 88 : Elite Scapegoat
Paril
Paril's Avatar
Looking good! There is quite a bit that you haven't discovered yet, but it's because we don't expose some extra details on the card page yet. Once we do that, you'll probably have to adjust this a bit :)
2
04/03/2023 6:12 am
Level 57 : Grandmaster Pony
Yomna
Yomna's Avatar
You probably talking about hearts, emeralds and diamonds.
It's true that there is no information on this but I have the impression that an emerald probably represents a certain number of hearts, like the diamond, and that it depends on the level ^^
Can't wait to see the page !
2
04/03/2023 12:42 pm
Level 57 : Grandmaster Pony
Yomna
Yomna's Avatar
Edit: I think that simply that heart, emerald and diamond represent the rarity value (heart = 1, emerald = 5, diamond = 10)
1
04/02/2023 7:11 pm
Level 37 : Artisan Scribe
OrderOutOfChaos
OrderOutOfChaos's Avatar
I like how you did the research.
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