Anyone who says "some game x isn't dying" is correct. Anyone who says "some game x is dying" is also correct. I've been around the block long enough to know how this works. A game seldom ever dies completely (take a look at EQ or Ultima), the ones that do are the ones that never make it to market in the first place. But the population always shrinks to such a size that multi-play isn't worth your time any more. I used to play Anarchy Online a lot, but when you can wander around the world for over an hour and all you see are NPCs then it's time to move on. I guarantee you if I jumped onto the forums and complained that "AO is dying" at least one person would shoot back "no it's not! they just released the new engine!" And that's true, they did in fact just release a brand new graphics engine (an engine that's about 10 years behind the times in terms of technology and their developer staff has been on life-support for just as long). The same thing will happen to Minecraft, the important (and interesting) questions to ask are:

1. When will I decide to call it quits and move-on?
   
2. What's the next big thing after Minecraft?
   
   
3. What will I choose to play next?
   
   

I feel frustrated by my inability to answer question 2. Question 2 is really really hard to answer. Even if some brand new shiny voxel adventure survival game came out next week, would I really want to build yet another house in that environment? I'm wondering if it isn't just Minecraft that has peaked, but sandbox survival games have peaked (for now). At one point all of us marvelled at the thought of building a house with a fireplace in it and a few chairs. Now the vast majority of us have done that and groan at the thought of building a house with a fireplace in it with a few chairs. So if I were to take a stab at question 2, I would be willing to bet the next big thing after Minecraft is not going to be a sandbox voxel survival game, and probably not even a sandbox game. For awhile there I thought it was going to be StarForge, then it blew-up and the developers quit (not surprising, take a look at the game while it's still on Steam, just don't buy it, it promises the world but apparently failed to deliver on those promises).

I hear a lot of commotion about turning Minecraft into an MMO-RPG. Whether or not Mojang intended to do that, I'd argue that the next thing for Minecraft is to give it some content and transform it to be more than just a glorified box of Lego (oh look, I used "than" instead of "then" wow, such letters, very grammatically). So if Minecraft was an MMO-RPG stocked with quests and a back story, and not just a sandbox, that might be enough to rekindle general interest, but not everyone wants that and turning the game into an MMO-RPG creates a lot of new problems that aren't easy to solve, for example:

NPC: "Fly hither to the fortress and fetch me eye of newt!"
Player: "It's over there?"
NPC: "Yes! but you must travel for several days south around the great chasm!"
Player: "Well, why don't I just build a bridge over it here, I'd be back in 5 minutes"
NPC: "(o_o) no, just no"
Player: "Why not?"
NPC: ">:( Because you're supposed to travel for several days like I told you!!"
Player: "Not if I build this bridge..."
NPC: "You can't!"
Player: "I just did! here you go! eye of newt!"
NPC: "I don't want it!"
Player: "Why not?"
NPC: "Because you did it wrong and now I'm depressed"
*NPC throws himself into the chasm and dies *

Maybe that's what mods are for, and I've heard of SkyrimCraft, but I can't seem to shake the feeling that something's still missing, that cramming Minecraft into the RPG box isn't going to change anything.

Minecraft isn't dying because it won't completely die, but it will get to a point where multi-play is simply not worth your time. I'm not sure what people hope to achieve by saying "it's not dying" because the game is down-trending on Twitter and Google and I have also noticed sales aren't nearly as formidable as they were three years ago. So let's presume that Minecraft is a thing of the past, what's next? For those who have already moved-on from Minecraft, what are they playing now? What do people want to play in a post-Minecraft world? Is building a house with a fireplace still fun? Do you miss your old worlds, or have you found something great and never looked back?

Genuinely interested in some post-Minecraft discussion.

wow berend i didnt realise we were the same age and im also dissapointed that the server died it was the only server that ive consantly been on and i mean that i tried to join others and it wasnt the same as when mojavecraft was popular. the comunity when it was at its best was fucking amazing i really wish that it didnt die out but after three ish years i did not have the time to spend more then 3 hours on it. it was something truely amazing that you created and you should feel proud of what you acomplished. hopefully you read this dude i always had fun on your server and especially with Svhirs xD if you ever decide to start a new server let me know i would be interested in helping out anyway i could and thank you again, it was the best experiance ive had in minecraft so, so, so, amazing dude i hope you can find a way to bring this back i really really do ;) much love ;)

Minecraft in itself isn't dying. What Minecraft used to be is. It's, as you say, changing. Now, if it's for the better or worse, I'm not yet sure...

I can assure you that Minecraft is not dying.  Microsoft wouldn't have paid 2.5 billion dollars if it was.  I do, however, agree that it's changing.  What happened is, as you said, the original minecraft generation grew up.  When that happened, only a select few of them remained.  These select few are older, more experienced, and more talented than most of the new, younger generation.  Because of this, it has become more difficult for younger players to get attention.  It's very difficult for your work to stand out when it's constantly flanked by mega builds.

These older apex-predator-builders prefer showcasing their work on Youtube, rather than running servers (mainly because there's money to be made there).  As a result, people are more involved in watching youtube than they are in joining servers.  The few older builders who do run servers have done so for years and have accumulated a fan base that can not be challenged by newer servers (E.g. WoK).

I can only iamgine what you server owners have to go through jsut to keep them lively these days. While I don't traffic any server myself, besides my own private one with friends, I can definitely remember times when everyone played often; Now i'm practically the only one still building on a constant basis. I had to start a giant megaproject just to renew my own friend's interest in a game they still hold fond nostalgia for but are currently uninterested. If that's with just a small circle of friends, the bigger trend you mentioned couldn't be further than that. The newer plays are coming along, and with the community waiting on Microsoft's first move with their newly acquired asset, things may just take another interesting turn.

Money is now a big influence in minecraft, with this new generation it is becomming "normal" to hire/buy builds from professional or decent builders. People such as Hypixel etc... have the money to spend 1.2k on a hub spawn for a build team where as a new server starting out probably has a budget of $0 to spend on any assets. They spent this money so that these builds draw players and give them a reason to stay other then it's basic purpose of interacting and socializing with other players online. Hypixel has been one of the biggest culprits of this earning around 4mil from what i heard at the age of 18 from server donations and that was a couple years ago when i heard, so who knows what he's up to now? Minecraft servers are turning into businesses rather than non-profit places where people can hang out for fun. Server owners making it so that to have a privillage or an advantage ingame you have to pay to have the edge on other players and other players doing the exact same thing makes the new generation want to spend more to have the upper hand or to be looked up upon with the cost of money. Now i believe if this revoloution of minecraft continues whats to stop servers from limitizing everything you can do on a server unless you pay to become a member? or to be able to access basic features of a server we have today? Minecraft is a one time purchase game but it seems even though everything is free to go online and play on multiplayer, ourselves are the people stopping us having the most fun experience we can by looking at Multiplayer as a way to earn a profit. Now there are very different servers out there right now that do not do this and i'm just saying this trend i believe will become "normal" in the future, so what's going to stop us doing this to ourselves what is going to stop us digging our own hole in our wallet? Well i have no answer for that. Who would of thought that for a game you could build creations on that you could be able to sell them to someone for a price, i mean there is nothing stopping them from building their own spawn their own hub their own arena but they choose to have someone else build for them. So they never try themselves do they? So what is this saying about minecrafts creative future... once this generation of builders finish minecraft because of some reason e.g. not enough time, what happens to the people that have not tried building them selves and got other people to build for them? Nothing so then they would have to learn themselves with no builder to teach them or they simply won't learn at all leaving the creative future dry in minecraft. So unless i start seeing people actually building themselves for their own servers or personal reasons i will not be surprised if minecraft turns into a uncreative place where you have to have deep pockets to even play online. As the big servers get bigger and the small servers get smaller you will see eventually a revoultion where everything becomes equal again because if there are no creative builders in the future who does the big servers have to pay to do their work for them? they will have no one and be forced to do something for themselves... And these small servers working on a lower budget would already be learning how to build for themselves and be able to build at a high standard probably higher then any of the big servers can buy or hire. As this would make minecraft a more equal place serverwise i don't see this happening any time soon but it's what i see to come in the future.

I'm 17 also, still going strong making stuff in MC

One reason for the decline in players is the massive amount of Factions server being created and hosted right now. Most people will think yours is just another one.